First published 9/22/2026, 5:40:16 AM · Last updated 9/27/2026, 6:10:31 PM

降灰予報（定時）

The JMA report states that Tokachidake (十勝岳) is currently at eruption alert level 3 (entry restriction). If an eruption occurs, ashfall is forecast from the crater toward the southeast between the 22nd 21:00 and 24:00. Coordinates: 4325.07, 14241.18. Depth: 2.1 km. Listed municipalities expected to receive ashfall: Furano-shi, Biei-chō, Kamifurano-chō, Minamifurano-chō, Minami-Furano-chō, Shihoro-chō, Kamishihoro-chō, Shikaoi-chō.

Categories: severe-weather-and-natural-disasters

Generated scores

Scores are based on the cited reporting and use a 1–10 scale. Read the methodology.

Confidence: 6/10How certain the assessment is based on the clarity and evidence in the cited reporting.
Geographic reach: 3/10How widely the event reaches, from a local area (1) to worldwide impact (10).
Global importance: 3/10The event's broader significance, from limited importance (1) to major global importance (10).
Impact magnitude: 4/10The scale or severity of the real-world impact, from minor (1) to extreme (10).
Positivity: 1/10How harmful or beneficial the event is, from strongly harmful (1) to strongly positive (10).
Urgency: 8/10How time-sensitive the event is, from low urgency (1) to immediate attention needed (10).

Why it matters

The source explicitly forecasts ashfall for multiple named municipalities and notes the volcano is at alert level 3 (entry restrictions), indicating an elevated volcanic hazard and local/regional impact during the stated time window.

Location

Sources

降灰予報（定時）

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