First published 9/22/2026, 5:37:15 AM · Last updated 9/22/2026, 5:37:15 AM

降灰予報（定時）

Ashfall forecast for Kirishimayama (Shinmoedake). The volcano is currently at Eruption Alert Level 2 (crater-area restrictions). The forecast states that if an eruption occurs, ashfall is expected from the crater toward the west between the 22nd 21:00 and 24:00. Coordinates given: 31°54.57′, 130°53.18′ (Depth: 1.4 km). Listed municipalities expected to receive ashfall are in Kumamoto Prefecture: Hitoyoshi, Minamata, Nishiki, Sagara, Yamae, Kuma, and Asagiri.

Categories: severe-weather-and-natural-disasters

Generated scores

Scores are based on the cited reporting and use a 1–10 scale. Read the methodology.

Confidence: 8/10How certain the assessment is based on the clarity and evidence in the cited reporting.
Geographic reach: 3/10How widely the event reaches, from a local area (1) to worldwide impact (10).
Global importance: 3/10The event's broader significance, from limited importance (1) to major global importance (10).
Impact magnitude: 5/10The scale or severity of the real-world impact, from minor (1) to extreme (10).
Positivity: 2/10How harmful or beneficial the event is, from strongly harmful (1) to strongly positive (10).
Urgency: 7/10How time-sensitive the event is, from low urgency (1) to immediate attention needed (10).

Why it matters

The source (JMA) forecasts possible ashfall from Shinmoedake during a defined time window and lists specific municipalities in Kumamoto Prefecture that may be affected.

Location

Sources

降灰予報（定時）

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