First published · Last updated
Nine days from the vote, neither Brazilian front-runner comes close to 50%
A Datafolha poll published on 2026-09-25 shows Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36% of voting intentions, with neither near the threshold to win outright on October 4. The survey was conducted on Tuesday 22 and Wednesday 23 among 2,002 voters in 125 municipalities with a two percentage point margin of error.
Categories: politics-and-governance
Generated scores
Scores are based on the cited reporting and use a 1–10 scale. Read the methodology.
- Confidence
- 6/10
- Geographic reach
- 5/10
- Global importance
- 4/10
- Impact magnitude
- 5/10
- Positivity
- 5/10
- Urgency
- 6/10
Why it matters
The poll indicates neither front-runner is approaching the threshold needed to win outright on October 4.

