Planet Briefing

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Nine days from the vote, neither Brazilian front-runner comes close to 50%

A Datafolha poll published on 2026-09-25 shows Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36% of voting intentions, with neither near the threshold to win outright on October 4. The survey was conducted on Tuesday 22 and Wednesday 23 among 2,002 voters in 125 municipalities with a two percentage point margin of error.

Categories: politics-and-governance

Generated scores

Scores are based on the cited reporting and use a 1–10 scale. Read the methodology.

Confidence
6/10
Geographic reach
5/10
Global importance
4/10
Impact magnitude
5/10
Positivity
5/10
Urgency
6/10

Why it matters

The poll indicates neither front-runner is approaching the threshold needed to win outright on October 4.

Location

Sources

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