RCtest: An R Package for comprehensive forecast evaluation via reality check and predictive density tests

Generated scores

Scores are based on the cited reporting and use a 1–10 scale. Read the methodology.

Confidence

6/10How certain the assessment is based on the clarity and evidence in the cited reporting.

Geographic reach

1/10How widely the event reaches, from a local area (1) to worldwide impact (10).

Global importance

2/10The event's broader significance, from limited importance (1) to major global importance (10).

Impact magnitude

2/10The scale or severity of the real-world impact, from minor (1) to extreme (10).

Positivity

7/10How harmful or beneficial the event is, from strongly harmful (1) to strongly positive (10).

Urgency

1/10How time-sensitive the event is, from low urgency (1) to immediate attention needed (10).